Green Myth-Busting: Global Warming and Cold Weather
MTYH: Cold weather, especially unseasonably cold weather, undermines the concept of climate change.
FACTS: "Global warming" is a problematic phrase for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the belief that cold weather somehow invalidates the concept of a global climate crisis. Climate change skeptics are quick to suggest that instances of winter storms (especially when they coincide with activities aimed at addressing "global warming") are evidence that climate change science is flawed.
Rather than exposing climate change as a myth or a mere belief, these skeptics demonstrate the logical fallacy of not seeing the forest for the trees. A recent report by Minnesota's WCCO addresses the problem with using current weather conditions as evidence of broader changes in climate:
"Don't confuse weather with climate," said WCCO's Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas. "Weather is a snapshot, climate is a long term trend."
In other words, weather is what happens at any given moment in the atmosphere while climate is how the atmosphere behaves over decades and centuries.
Paul said the term global warming can be misleading.
"I think a better description is probably climate change because there are going to be regional variations across the globe," he said.
We need to keep a global perspective in mind because while the United States is experience record cold, some of Europe and Asia are seeing record warmth.
"Don't look out the window and make assumptions about long-term climate," said Paul. "But that goes both ways. In the summertime on the hot humid days we can't beat our chest and say this is global warming."
The Drudge Report Loves These Kind of Headlines
Grist's Coby Beck made a similar observation last November; RealClimate addresses some of the problems associated with "global warming.". And as happy as I was to see the Rev. Pat Robertson acknowledging climate change last year, we have to note that his recognition was based on the same logical fallacy as those who claim that winter storms in April are valid evidence of problems with climate science.
Our own David Anderson has suggested a new phrase: "global weirding." Given the multiple strange events we're seeing (rapid extinctions of species, shifts in weather patterns, polar ice melts, etc.), it seems appropriate. What other ways can we better communicate the issue of climate change?
April 12th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Most people I know understand the difference between Climate and Weather. It is ironic (and often hilarious) when the "Gore Effect" kicks in though.
The difference boils down to the law of large numbers where if you flip a coin 10 times likelihood of it being exactly heads 5 time and tails 5 times isn't very good. But if you flip it a ten million times you will find it to work out to around 50.01% heads to 49.99% tails so although unpredictable in the short term it is somewhat predictable in the long term (the Uncertainty Principle covers some of this too but that's another conversation).
One thing I will note though is that if we are throwing out anecdotal evidence that refutes global warming we must at the same time throw out anecdotal evidence that supports it (Katrina comes to mind here). I expect that if you exclude intended parody, a careful analysis of a Lexis-Nexis search would show equal if not greater cases of Weather implicitly used to defend the Climate science of global warming.
http://rationalenvironmentalist.com
April 12th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
You're right, Jimmy… that's why I brought up the case of Pat Robertson, who was well-intentioned, but used summer heat as his "evidence." I saw a good analogy for thinking about severe weather events in terms of climate change — climate is a six-sided die, and rolling a one means a severe weather event. Our emissions of masssive amounts of greenhouse gases have the effect of putting two ones on that die. It's not direct causation; rather, it's raising the probability.
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Jeff McIntire-Strasburg
Senior Editor
Green Options
jeff@greenoptions.com
April 12th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
On my blog at globalwarmingisreal.com/blog it seems I am responding at least once a week to someone that wishes to deny global warming or, to use the more accurate term, climate change merely because the weather outside their window is cold, or they’ve had a cold winter.
And of course, as Jimmy points out, it works in both directions. Climate is not weather - period.
April 20th, 2007 at 3:12 am
Everyone will soon see that the wierd weather is a part of the warning sign of Jesus’ second coming.
April 27th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Couldn’t agree more that an unseasonable cold snap does not mean Global Warming does not exist. Conversely, Hurricanes and high temperatures don’t confrim it either. The fact the CO2 actually lags by hundreds of years an increase in temperature however may be a clue that we are chasing the wrong problem, and may indicate that solar activity is a more likely cause, one we can not do anything about, but adapt as needed.
April 27th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
Amen to that, Anonymous brother.
David
Founder and CEO
Green Options, LLC
May 8th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
Global warming is TOTALLY real!!
Like gnomes and fairies and the Boogieman!
I totally believe everything in the enviromental books I buy at my local farmers market. Which I carry home in my tote, read and then recycle.
I hate Global warming!! I think we should ride bikes and only smoke “natural” cigarettes while we eat organic and avoid chemical-laiden shampoos!
I am with you brothers and sisters of the earth!!!!!
May 8th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
What an asshole.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
I was recently at an environmental conference here in Miami and saw some pretty interesting information with supporting evidence from some “climate-change skeptics” - of course we called them scientists.
You shouldn’t attack people when all you have to support you is a Google search, Jeff!
May 9th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
I fully understand and support the right of the skeptics to smirk when it snows at a global warming rally. I view such instances in the same manner as I view global warming supporters who gloat after an event like Hurricane Katrina.
The reality or fallacy of global warming is not the primary issue anymore. The primary issue is whether or not it is man made, and the secondary issue is whether or not forced lifestyle changes will curb its advance. Some of the newer ice boring data suggests that the warming precedes the release of massive amounts of CO2 trapped in the polar caps, instead of CO2 causing the warming and melting the ice.
I personally don’t know which theory is correct and no longer believe that anyone cares. Too many businesses and politicians have taken possession of the green religion to increase sales and push agendas.
Jeff - I hope you’re not upset that I followed you here. Take care, buddy.